Launch Tomorrow

Landing Pages for your Lean Startup

  • About
  • Members
  • Blog
  • Services

Why over 40% of startups (still) build products nobody wants

January 29, 2021 by Luke Szyrmer Leave a Comment

When my wife and I were considering leaving London and moving back to Warsaw, we felt a lot of cognitive dissonance. On one hand, most of our friends were sharing clickbaity headlines of despair. Depending who was sharing it, either the whole country was turning into a totalitarian state or it was in a state of moral apocalypse driven by the EU. On the other hand, when we visited grandparents during the summer at their log cabin, the lazy afternoons on the porch felt very cozy, safe, and relaxed. The only thing that was clear: articles shared on social media were exaggerating on both ends of the political spectrum.

The Netflix special "The Social Dilemma" has tried to popularize what most of the tech industry has been aware of for a decade. We life in a world of social media bubbles. Each of us are subject to massive confirmation bias. Confirmation bias refers to discounting any facts which are inconsistent with our current beliefs. So we only believe facts which are already consistent with our current beliefs, accumulating unfounded confidence in how right we are. Social media amplifies this dynamic. If our friends keep repeating our own views back to us, we radicalize in our opinions.

This dynamic is similar to that of cults. Once you are on the inside, any information sourced from outside the cult is discounted as unreliable. So despite being able to think for yourself rationally, you end up believing that staying in the cult is the only reasonable choice you have–even as they serve pink Kool-Aid to thousands of naked people in the desert.

So why am I writing about confirmation bias on an innovation blog…of all places? Because it’s the underlying problem behind the most common reason startups fail: building a product that nobody wants. And despite Lean Startup and similar reasonable approaches, 40% of new product failures from startups and corporates have been occurring for this reason since studies the 1970s.

I would even say that the real problem isn’t rational. We need to go deeper to understand why they haven’t reduced the frequency of this problem. The founder is so convinced of their vision, they avoid gathering feedback or they discount any feedback inconsistent with their vision. Even if it comes from prospective customers. Just like believing every headline you read on Facebook.

Bias and false beliefs

The nature of early stage innovation is that small changes in trajectory can have massive implications years into the future. To borrow an aeronautics analogy, this is similar to the proverbial autopilot mechanism on most planes. For most of a long haul flight, a plane is a few degrees off course. But as long as it constantly corrects and readjust for the right destination, it will get there.

If the autopilot didn't correct in the early stages, it could miss the mark by a massive margin. This is why disconfirming evidence is useful (necessary in my opinion) in this context. If the autopilot mechanism doesn't know you are two degrees of course when flying from Europe across the Atlantic, you'll end up in Florida when you expect to land at JFK airport in New York. Let's say the autopilot mechanism breaks and the pilots fall asleep once the plane reaches a cruising altitude. Some of the planes will arrive at JFK regardless. Most won't; early diversions off course (even small ones) will have the largest impact on where the plane "arrives".

Filed Under: assumptions, innovation, Risk, unknown unknowns

The secret to breakthrough new products

January 22, 2021 by Luke Szyrmer Leave a Comment

As humans we are creatures of analogy and association. This matters a lot, when creating a new product. The movie industry is a good place to explain it. The movie business has high risks, high rewards if done right, and lots of data on outcomes.

Filed Under: assumptions, innovation, Risk, vizualization

How to budget for innovation

October 16, 2020 by Luke Szyrmer Leave a Comment

This week I just wanted to draw your attention to an old article on Harvard Business Review about budgeting in established companies for innovation.

Here, on average, is what they estimated they were currently spending: 85% of their resources on day-to-day operations 5% on incremental improvements that produced faster, cheaper, better sameness 5% on small sustaining innovations 5% on big, disruptive innovations When we asked the managers what a better proportion might be, their answers were: 75% on day-to-day operations 5% on incremental improvements 10% on sustaining innovations 10% on big, disruptive innovations.

Personally, I find this intuitive, because of asset allocation is part of my background in finance. In situations of partial randomness, like in the financial markets, the amount you allocate defines your expose to particular risks and profit drivers.

Filed Under: assumptions, innovation, release planning, Risk Tagged With: market risk, process risk

How Many Experiments Do I Need To Run?

September 18, 2020 by Luke Szyrmer Leave a Comment

A teacher said to her student, “Billy, if both of your parents were born in 1967, how old are they now?”
After a few moments, Billy answered, “It depends.”
“It depends on what?” she asked.
“It depends on whether you ask my father or my mother.”

It’s also like that with the number of experiments you need to run, in order to build a new product.

It depends.

On how much of a breakthrough you want your product to be.

Filed Under: assumptions, innovation, Risk, unknown unknowns

Why the Launch Tomorrow process actually works

September 11, 2020 by Luke Szyrmer Leave a Comment

Recently I showed up on the Predictable B2B Success podcast. Vinay interviewed me. He originally worked with Dan Norris as his content guy, and is now running a content repurposing agency.

Filed Under: assumptions, innovation, Risk, unknown unknowns Tagged With: case study, founder market fit, hero canvas, market risk, principles, prioritization

  • 1
  • 2
  • Next Page »

By Role

  • Startup Founder
  • Software Manager
  • Remote Leader
  • Innovation Executive
  • You Like?

    Search

    Key Topics

  • Faster time to market
  • Early-stage Growth and Marketing
  • Product-Message-Market Fit
  • Experiments and Minimum viable products
  • Metrics
  • About Luke

    Luke Szyrmer is an innovation and remote work expert. He’s the bestselling author of #1 bestseller Launch Tomorrow. He mentors early stage tech founders and innovators in established companies. Read More…

    Topics

    • agile
    • alignment
    • assumptions
    • case study
    • communication
    • conversion rate
    • delay
    • Estimation
    • experiments
    • extreme product launch
    • find people
    • funding
    • Growth
    • inner game
    • innovation
    • landing page
    • landing page MVP
    • manage risks
    • marketing
    • metrics
    • minimum viable product
    • modelling
    • modularity
    • personal
    • Pitch
    • podcasts
    • priorities
    • proof
    • release planning
    • Risk
    • software
    • startup
    • stories
    • time management
    • tools for founders
    • uncategorized
    • unknown unknowns
    • velocity
    • vizualization

    Tags

    agile funding automated testing bottleneck case study conway's law covid customer development digital taylorism existential risk extreme product launch faster time to market growth headlines identifying needs landing page mvp launch lean lean startup managing priorities market risk minimum viable product modularity numbers options output paypal planning principles prioritization problem to solve process risk product market fit real options split testing startup story systemic test driven development testing time management tool underlier value hypothesis value proposition work time

    Copyright © 2022 · Log in · Privacy policy · Cookie policy · Terms & conditions